Trade Pressure, Voter Priorities, and the Power of Perception

Takeaways from our April 3 Countdown to Canada Webinar 

In our most recent Countdown to Canada webinar, we focused on two major themes: the political implications of Trump’s latest trade move – and what it means (and doesn’t mean) for Canada – and the rising importance of “Canadian” identity, both in politics and branding.

Here are four takeaways that stood out for me:

1. We weren’t targeted – but we’re still feeling the impact

Trump’s announcement didn’t include new tariffs on Canada, but let’s be clear: the damage is already underway. Existing tariffs are contributing to job losses and plant closures -especially in places like Windsor – and Canadians are starting to connect the dots between trade tension and cost-of-living pressures. 

As Shachi Kurl pointed out, this isn’t just about geopolitics. It’s about kitchen-table economics – and that’s where elections are won or lost.

2. Carney is leading on the issues that matter – for now

Shachi shared action grid that mapped out “Canadian Priorities” and the leaders best suited to take them on. What we saw quite clearly is that Carney is currently seen as stronger on the issues voters seem to care most about—cost of living, inflation, the economy, and Canada’s relationship with the U.S. Poilievre meanwhile, leads on issues like energy, taxes, and crime – topics that are further down the list. 

The wildcard? Whether voters give Carney credit for managing the current moment. If they do, his lead could solidify. If the focus shifts, the dynamic could flip. What is important to note is that this is snapshot in time. Things change fast and nothing can be taken for granted. 

3. Being Canadian isn’t a label – it’s a narrative

Jennifer Birch presented new research showing that people in Canada increasingly want to support Canadian brands – but not based on ownership alone. What matters is whether a brand communicates why and how it’s Canadian. Local sourcing and production carry far more weight than head office location or origin story. 

“It’s not about whether you are Canadian,” she said. “It’s about whether you’re perceived as Canadian.” 

That perception opens up real opportunities – not just for legacy brands, but for any business that can tell a credible Canadian story. 

Domestic travel is having a moment – will the tourism sector seize it? 

The drop in travel to the U.S. isn’t surprising – it’s been dominating headlines. But what Jennifer Birch highlighted is what comes next: a clear, time-limited window for Canada’s tourism industry to recapture attention and reignite interest in domestic experiences. There’s real opportunity here to turn redirected travel dollars into renewed pride – and spending – at home. 

Outside of tourism, the outlook for services is mixed. Tech remains constrained by global supply chains, but Canadian firms offering specialized services – particularly those priced in CAD – could benefit from a weaker dollar and growing U.S. demand. Skilled labour may become an export advantage in the short term. 

There’s a lot still in motion – on trade, on voter sentiment, and on consumer expectations. But one thing came through clearly:

This moment is about perception – of leadership, of identity, and of value. 

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